I ran 1,000 simulations to predict the results of the 2025 DCI season
The b(AI)ndScores model is back for the new season - see what it has to say about how results will play out in 2025.
The 2025 DCI season hasn’t even started, but I’ve already got predictions on who might be crowned World Champions.
Okay… not really. As I’ve said (even as recently as two weeks ago), drum corps scores and placements are impossible to predict. But that won’t stop me from trying. That’s right - the b(AI)ndScores model is back for the 2025 DCI season and the first round of predictions are here.
If you’re new to my content, over the past few years, I’ve built machine learning models that predict results for various marching arts championships. Last summer was the first time I applied it to DCI when I generated preseason predictions that were updated throughout tour as the season progressed. By the end of the season, the model ended up being fairly accurate - the final version correctly predicted placements for 13 of the top 15 corps and was within one point of actual scores for 14 of them.
I’ve also used this model for Bands of America’s Grand Nationals, which presents more challenges since top bands don’t always compete head-to-head or attend the same events prior to meeting in Indianapolis. Even so, it correctly predicted the champion and 11 finalists last year, and landed within +/-2 placements for nine of them.
With the 2025 DCI season on the horizon, I’m excited to share that I’ve made a number of updates to the model such as introducing new data and tweaking parameters to hopefully increase accuracy. Also new this year, I ran this model through 1,000 simulations to estimate the most likely outcomes and each corps’ projected chances of making finals, placing in the top three, or being named World Champions.
Per usual, I’ll mention the caveat that these are strictly based off historic data and do not consider unquantifiable data such as show concepts, design and educational staff members, and member talent - key ingredients that obviously have much more influence on future outcomes than past results alone. I’m also only including results for the top 15 corps as predictions become trickier to make further down the competitive ladder, especially as Open Class corps are factored in. Regardless, I think it will be cool to see how this model performs as the season progresses.
I’ll take a look at some highlights first, with full results and data at the end. Let’s dive in.
The Race for Finals is On
Madison Scouts were perhaps one of the biggest underdog stories of the 2024 season after the corps climbed four spots from their 2023 finish to make finals for the first time since 2017. Just out of the picture were Pacific Crest who finished 13th for both their highest placement and highest score in corps history.
By making finals, Scouts took a big first step towards a return to their prestigious past when they were among DCI’s elite, and no doubt they will be in the mix for a return to finals this year. However, don’t count out Pacific Crest whose upwards trajectory with three top 15 finishes in the past 4 seasons has them on course for their first appearance in finals in 2025. That said, the model currently favors Madison Scouts to finish 12th again, followed by Pacific Crest, Blue Knights, and Crossmen all within less than 0.9 of each other.
This prediction is quite contradictory from the fact that nearly every DCI World Championships finals since 2000 has featured at least one corps who was not a finalist in the season prior, with the exception of 2019, 2015, and 2006. Given this trend and Pacific Crest’s aforementioned momentum, they would seem logical to be the corps to break into the top 12 this season. Only time will tell if they, or another non-finalist in 2024, can make that leap.
The Cavaliers Rebound in 2025
The Cavaliers - once DCI’s most dominant corps in the early 2000s - had quite a disappointing year in 2024 as the corps finished in 11th for their lowest placement since 1982. After the season, the corps made sweeping changes to their design team by adding notable names such as Rick Subel, Kevin Shah, Lindsey Vento, Jay Bocook, and more.
After a notable corps takes a tumble to the last few finalist spots, it can be difficult to project where they go next. Fortunately, I think history may be on the side of The Cavaliers - Boston Crusaders, Phantom Regiment, and Blue Stars are all recent examples of other corps who finished 11th or lower at one point but later bounced back into the top 8 in later years. Boston Crusaders were the most notable example of this when they skyrocketed to sixth place in 2017 after nearly missing finals the year before. Since then, Boston has never finished in the bottom half of finals, highlighted by a pair of second place finishes last year and in 2022.
With these recent examples, the model picked The Cavaliers to be the next comeback story and corps on the rise in 2025. And honestly, I agree with this pick - their new staff members in all captions have impressive resumes and the necessary experience to push them up the ranks. I’m not sure if they will be able to repeat the six-place jump that Boston Crusaders pulled off, but I certainly expect The Cavaliers to fight hard to reclaim their spot amongst the top 8.
Last Year’s Medalists Repeat But With A Major Twist
Earlier I mentioned it’s rare for the same top 12 corps to repeat as finalists in consecutive seasons. It’s also rare for the same top 3 corps to repeat as medalists in consecutive season. Blue Devils, Bluecoats, and Santa Clara Vanguard were the last trio to do it in the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but the last occurrence before that was in 2002 and 2003 with Blue Devils, The Cavaliers, and The Cadets (in fact, the three corps were medalists for four straight seasons from 2000 to 2003). Despite this rarity, the model is projecting the three corps to again remain in the medal spots in this year.
Here’s where the major twist comes in: according to the model, the 2025 DCI World Champion will be the Boston Crusaders.
You might be as shocked as I am to read that statement, given that this could finally be Boston’s first World Championship in their 85 year history. However, I think this year is their best chance as ever to win a title, and for a few reasons:
A TON of pressure will be on Bluecoats to put out a production that was as good or better than last year. A lot of championship winning corps also have a history of struggling in the following season, as The Cavaliers were the last repeat champions other than Blue Devils way back in 2002. Even second place is a difficult achievement as the last corps to finish with a silver medal following a championship was also The Cavaliers in 2005. I believe that these trends alone are a big reason why the model picked Bluecoats to finish third this year.
Blue Devils will have their back against the wall following a third place finish last year, their lowest since 2006. The corps may undergo a fairly large identity shift this summer in hopes of putting out a show that is fresh, innovative, and is competitive. While such a shift can payoff with a championship, it also carries the risk of another season ending without a title.
Champion corps usually spend at least a season among the top 3 before winning a title; Carolina Crown, Bluecoats, Santa Clara Vanguard are all examples of corps in the past decade and a half that finished second at least once before winning their first title (or in SCV’s case, their first title after a long drought). Boston’s pair of silver medal finishes in 2022 and 2024 prove that they belong in DCI’s top echelon and are ready to take the next step towards a title.
Despite these factors, it bears repeating: DCI is impossible to predict. I won’t be surprised if the actual results end up being a complete 180 from the model’s predictions with any number of scenarios. Bluecoats could very well live up to their new standard set by “Change is Everything” and repeat as champions. Blue Devils could rise to the occasion and dominate in their typical fashion with another undefeated season. Heck, even Phantom Regiment or Carolina Crown have a chance at shaking up the top 3 with the right productions. So much is unknown that it will undoubtedly be another fantastic DCI season to follow and watch both amazing performances and how the competitive landscape will unfold.
Full Simulation Results
I’ve already touched on so many corps and their possible landing spots, but there are many more that I haven’t yet mentioned. I’m sure you’re all anxiously awaiting the full results, so let’s finally check them out.
This first table lists the top 15 corps based on average, maximum, and minimum predicted scores and average predicted placement from the 1000 simulations, plus each corps’ most common predicted placement:
Using the results from the 1000 simulations, I also found each corps’ chances of being a finalist, finishing in the top 3, and being named a champion:
As you can tell, there’s a wide variety of possibilities for how results will play out! Beyond the top 15, there’s 3 additional corps who have a 0.5% chance or greater of making finals - Spirit of Atlanta, The Academy, and Music City. These chances seem slim, but the fact that they are at least above zero truly shows how a number of corps could be in the mix for finals this year. The same could be said about there being six different corps with an above zero chance of being named World Champion.
Of the 1,000 simulations I ran, there were 22 corps that appeared at least once in the top 15. The simulation also produced 1,000 completely different pairings of corps and placements, so no simulation produced exactly the same results. And the most remarkable fact - if you consider that those 22 corps have an at least above zero chance of finishing in the top 15, the math adds up to 223 quadrillion different possibilities of corps/placement pairings.
Say it once more with me: DCI is impossible to predict. These predictions only provide a snapshot at what is highly likely to happen, not what will happen. Any number of scenarios could play out this season in an activity almost entirely based on subjective opinions. But that’s also what makes it so great, both for the fans to follow and for the members to compete in. Best of luck to all this summer and I can’t wait to see how it plays out!